“They [Republicans] said that if their candidate is adjudged as the loser, the disputations could drag up to January 20, 2025-the inauguration day of the new president. So the spectre of an inconclusive presidential election ala INEC looms in America.“

THERE are two things that are almost certain to happen on Tuesday, November 5, 2024 – one is election, including for the president of the United States, and two, is the likelihood of dispute of the outcome of the ballot no matter how the election turned out. The expectation is that the contentions could be more pronounced and threatening if the former president who is seeking a second term on the ticket of the Republican Party, Donald John Trump, is not declared the winner. With less than two weeks to the next election, he is yet to concede defeat to Joe Biden from the 2020 presidential polls. After failing more than 60 times in courts to upturn the result of the election of 2020, the former president and his acolytes have continued to litigate the allegedly rigged election in the court of public opinion. Till date, Americans are split almost down the middle with one half claiming that the January 6, 2021 violent assault on Congress by supporters of Trump in furtherance of their grievances over the election outcome was a coup to overthrow democracy, while the other half insists that it was a walk in the park by tourists and patriots who only wanted a free and fair election.

The disputes have not abated four years and counting. Indeed, in the intervening years, many states had reportedly fiddled with their election rules in the guise of making them stricter. But Americans claimed that some of the rule changes were blatant and brazen ploys to intimidate voters and suppress votes. In places rule changes empowered members of local election bodies not to certify results and award electors to winners of the plurality votes in their counties or precincts if members determine that the election was tainted. Mere suspicion, not necessarily evidence-based, will be enough to not certify a result. Before this year local election bodies play magisterial roles in elections while leaving disaffected parties and candidates to seek redress in law courts. Not anymore. The state of Georgia which is red (Republican), though Biden barely won it by in 2020, is presently notorious for loading some local election bodies with those who have been openly identified as Trump supporters. Trump indeed acknowledged some of these biased election managers during one of his rallies in Georgia. Thus far the Democrats have not been successful in getting the courts to remedy the situation. For the avoidance of doubts both Democrats and Republicans are into cutting corners for electoral advantage.

This year, unless either of Trump, or the candidate of the Democratic Party, Vice President Kamala Harris, won a decisive victory, as many as two, three or even seven states may have their presidential election results disputed. That could spell trouble.

The spectre of impending boobytraps in November manifests in other forms. In the years since after the 2020 election, some states, especially Republican-controlled jurisdictions have appointed the so-called election deniers into offices that play significant roles in election process and management. What it means is that the election deniers will no longer pretend to be apolitical in their election roles in cities, counties and states. This will be a significant departure from what it used to be. But why should this be concerning for what should be a national election to the American presidency? A lot.

The United States presidency, and similar offices such as membership of the senate and the Congress, may be national in nature but there’s no equivalent of Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to superintend the elections. In America every election is local including for the presidency. A significant dispute over an election outcome in any of the states especially in any of the seven so-called swing states this year could stall the emergence of a president in accord with the age-long timeframe for the creation of a president. In 2000 in the contest between the candidate of the Democrats, Albert Gore, and his Republican rival, George Bush Jr. it was the state of Florida that stalled calling of the presidential election results for weeks. It took the majority conservative justices of the supreme court to award victory to Bush. Later reviews of the ballots by some election experts determined that the court made a wrong call.

Only one dispute in one state -Florida- drove the US to the precipice twenty-four years ago. And as at that time the country was not as polarised as it is today in the age of Trump. This year, unless either of Trump, or the candidate of the Democratic Party, Vice President Kamala Harris, won a decisive victory, as many as two, three or even seven states may have their presidential election results disputed. That could spell trouble. Already, some stakeholders in the two dominant parties – Democrats and Republicans – have said that the presidential election will not end on election night in November as had been the convention for much of this century. Incumbent president, Joe Biden, a Democrat has reportedly said that he feared that the election may not be violence-free, and the handover smooth. On their part some die-hard Republicans and dyed-in-the-wool supporters of Trump have said that the election will not end on the significant dates of November 5 (election day), December 14 (states’ certification of electors), or January 6, 2025 electoral votes tally and certification by Congress). They said that if their candidate is adjudged as the loser, the disputations could drag up to January 20, 2025-the inauguration day of the new president. So the spectre of an inconclusive presidential election ala INEC looms in America.

For now Democrats and sympathetic Independents portray themselves as doves in the increasingly ill-tempered political contests in the US. But that may not be the case in the event the potential disputes over the presidential election end up for adjudication in the supreme court. The court has nine justices. The refrain is that it has a super majority of conservative justices – six. Trump alone appointed three of the six conservative jurists in his four-year first term between 2017-2021. Will Democrats accept that justice will be served in a court so composed? The recent decisions of the court in upturning precedents including that on reproductive health (Roe v Wade), and sweeping immunity for a president (in a case involving Trump) in all official actions will be concerning for Democrats. The loss of faith in the supreme court as a fair and impartial arbiter in election dispute could lead to a resort to self-help. And violence. A few months back a judge in Florida preemptively dismissed a classified documents charge against Trump, a decision that riled and rattled even some retired conservative judges. This judge was appointed by Trump, and she allegedly acted on a telegraphed message from a conservative supreme court justice, Clarence Thomas. Justice Thomas who is alleged to be corrupt is a conservative and a black man.

The American democracy is riddled with ironies and that could partly explain its claim to exceptionalism. The law appears not to be the law in the eyes of judges. The blindfolded lady holding an evenly balanced scale appears not to apply to the wielders of judicial powers in that country. For them the law is truly an ass. The law is interpreted from the prisms of whether the judge was a conservative or a progressive/liberal. In their supreme court there are no non-aligned justices, certainly not in recent years. That will be strange to any outsider. But that’s America with its exceptionalism, warts and all. It is also part of the American democracy that under certain circumstances, one national lawmaker could hold the country to ransom by, for instance, stalling promotions and possibly transfers in the military. And this is not just the conventional filibustering stunts to delay decisions inside legislative chambers. For almost the whole of last year, a Republican senator from Alabama, Tommy Tuberville, single-handedly held up promotions in the ranks of generals in the US military. He had blocked all military promotions between February and December in protest against a Pentagon (defence ministry) policy that pays for service members’ travels to seek reproductive health care services in states where such services are not banned. The Pentagon said that the hold up affected the commanders of the US Pacific Fleet, Pacific Air Forces, Air Combat Command, US Northern Command, Cyber Command and Space Command. The senator relented even after not getting his way or policy concessions. It’s apparently part of America’s exceptional democracy.

Any country, including Nigeria, that pretends to copy the American presidential system of government will flounder and fail. The US is a 21st century super power which relies on an 18th century constitution to run its affairs. In more than 200 years the constitution, with its many imperfections, doggy language and assumptions have been amended or altered only 27 times or so. And that could be why on inauguration day on January 20, 2025, the world could witness a convicted felon sworn in as president of a super power. Anyone who argues that Trump’s convictions on business fraud, and rape were politically motivated may be in order. But he remains a felon until the convictions are upturned. Surely, it is only in an exceptional democracy that a convict will be on the ballot in the first place.

In addition, there are not many democracies in the world where almost every position, no matter how lowly, could only be attained through elections. Some school board members (parents – teachers associations) in some jurisdictions are elected. Attorneys-general in some states are elected and are independent of the governors. Secretaries of state in many states are elected and independent of other authorities. In other areas judges are elected not appointed. They campaign for office like regular partisan politicians. Curiouser still is that in some states in America, the governor and Lt. governor could belong to two different political parties. In July North Carolina governor Roy Cooper (Democrat) declined consideration to be Harris’s running mate because he feared he could be supplanted by Lt. governor Mark Robinson, a conservative Republican. Robinson, who once described himself as a black Hitler, is running to occupy the governor’s mansion in November’s election. In which other country will you get this combination? But America, their America.

Americans are terrorised by their own fractious politics. But the country had been here before. There was once the firebrand ‘Tea Party’, also an insurgent faction of the Republican Party. The current Trumplican Party may yet be a reincarnation of the Tea Party in a more vicious and determined form. In this dispensation, you are a RINO (Republican in name only) and an undesirable if you opposed the undisputed party leader, Trump. The problem is that America’s fractious political contest is putting the world on edge. However, in spite of the palpable anxieties there’s still the possibility that the election would come and go…smoothly. And the world would heave a sigh of relief.

*Concluded.

Ugo Onuoha A veteran of repute, was the Managing Director/Editor-in-Chief, Champion Newspapers, Limited.

The President of the Senate, Godswill Akpabio, stated yesterday that the ongoing social and economic difficulties cannot be attributed to the administration of President Bola Tinubu.

During the weekend in Calabar, Akpabio, expressed these thoughts at the 2024 reunion of the UNICAL ’87 Law Class.

He said, “The difficulties we are witnessing in our nation today were not caused by the present administration. These are as a result of years of maladministration.

“Any country that does not have backbone infrastructure, you don’t have something to develop, you don’t save for the raining day, when there is economic malaise such as we are witnessing in the world today, such country is bound to be affected.

“The good news is that under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, we have hope today, that there is light at the end of the tunnel.

“The things that we are trying to do now, we are doing  for posterity. Not for ourselves. Be assured that this administration will leave behind lasting legacies that will guarantee a better future.”